Current Situation Assessment - 3rd quarter 2023
Our short-term assessment of developments on the financial markets.
Review - 2nd quarter 2023
As expected, the global economy - after the significant slowdown in 2022 - continued its trend towards bottoming out in the second quarter of 2023. Inflation figures have continued to fall in recent months, although they are still above the central banks' target of two percent.
The second quarter of 2023 has therefore seen further interest rate hikes. The speed and scope of these have recently slowed down against the background that the central banks have been somewhat more cautious in their interest rate policy due to the latent danger of recession.
Outlook
Central banks will continue to be caught between the fight against inflation and economic growth for some time. Since a further tightening of monetary policy would worsen the economic outlook, the cycle of interest rate hikes should have largely reached its zenith in most industrialised countries. With interest rate stagnating at a high level, only a moderate economic recovery is expected.
In the Colin&Cie mandates, the recovery path of "bonds" is expected to continue slowly but steadily due to short residual maturities and broad diversification.
In "Equities", we maintain an overweight despite higher volatility, as we believe that the latent risk of a recession is already priced in and that there are also positive signals such as sentiment indicators and market technology.
Furthermore, we see no reason to change the "commodities" (underweighted) and "gold" (neutral) positions due to lower return potentials compared to "bonds" and "equities".
Disclaimer - legal notice
This publication was produced by the Investment Office of the Colin&Cie Group. The information and opinions contained in this document are based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee the reliability, completeness or correctness of these sources. All information and quoted rates are only up-to-date at the time of this publication and are subject to change at any time without notice. The content is based on numerous assumptions made by the Colin & Cie Group. It should be noted that different assumptions can lead to materially different results. The forecasts and assessments are only current at the time this publication is prepared and can change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of an investment is not a guarantee of future results. Certain investments can experience sudden and substantial losses in value. This information and views do not constitute a solicitation, offer or recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or to carry out any other transactions. We recommend interested investors to consult their personal advisor before making decisions on the basis of this document so that personal investment goals, financial situation, individual needs and risk profile as well as further information can be duly taken into account as part of a comprehensive consultation. The information contained in this publication is marketing material that is distributed for advertising purposes only.
