Current Situation Assessment - 2nd quarter 2023
Our short-term assessment of developments on the financial markets.
Review - 1st quarter 2023
While the global economy was heavily burdened last year, particularly by the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine and high inflation rates, the outlook has recently brightened slightly. The easing of supply chains and energy prices as well as the end of the zero-covid policy in China are fuelling hopes for an end of the economic downward trend.
Against the backdrop of still high inflation rates, central banks around the world continued to raise their key interest rates in Q1 2023. The rapid rate hike cycle of the US Federal Reserve led to distortions at individual US regional banks in March. The turmoil on the other side of the Atlantic spilled over to Europe, where it came to the takeover of the crisis-ridden Swiss bank Credit Suisse by its former competitor UBS.
These events did not remain without effect on the financial markets. After all asset classes, especially equities, performed very well in the first weeks of the new year, they recently had to give back some of their gains.
Outlook
Inflationary pressures, which will ease only slightly in the short term, will keep interest rates stagnant at a high level and thus hamper growth. Despite robust labour market data and rising private household spending, the economic recovery should therefore only be slight in the coming months. Nevertheless, attractive yields can be expected from bonds in this context. To this end, we continue to focus on short residual maturities and broad diversification.
In equities, we remain slightly overweight despite potentially higher volatility and justify this, among other things, with positive signals in sentiment indicators and market technology. In doing so, we are increasingly focusing on attractively valued equity investments.
Due to the greater return potential in bonds and equities, we are maintaining our assessment of commodities (underweighted) and gold (neutral). In the asset class of alternative investments, no changes are planned either, as the current composition of investments has proven itself.
Disclaimer - legal notice
This publication was produced by the Investment Office of the Colin&Cie Group. The information and opinions contained in this document are based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee the reliability, completeness or correctness of these sources. All information and quoted rates are only up-to-date at the time of this publication and are subject to change at any time without notice. The content is based on numerous assumptions made by the Colin & Cie Group. It should be noted that different assumptions can lead to materially different results. The forecasts and assessments are only current at the time this publication is prepared and can change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of an investment is not a guarantee of future results. Certain investments can experience sudden and substantial losses in value. This information and views do not constitute a solicitation, offer or recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or to carry out any other transactions. We recommend interested investors to consult their personal advisor before making decisions on the basis of this document so that personal investment goals, financial situation, individual needs and risk profile as well as further information can be duly taken into account as part of a comprehensive consultation. The information contained in this publication is marketing material that is distributed for advertising purposes only.
